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-- The Fantasy Dudes (Moose, Bulldog, and Big Panda)

Many fantasy owners fret over one of the most puzzling prospective draft choices in all of baseball - Kendrys Morales.  He has had his ups and downs since his monster rookie season where he almost equaled the output of Mark Teixeira.  In his second campaign, he was off to a terrific start when he broke his leg celebrating a walk off home run.  He missed over 100 games in 2010 and missed the entire 2011 season.  While many owners will stay away from him this season, you should keep him on your board. He can be a valuable asset to any team because he has the ability to produce.  This is the same situation that the Colts are dealing with in Indianapolis with Peyton Manning.  You can choose to skip over him in your draft, but the bottom line is that he is still Kendrys Morales.  Don't expect to see numbers that reflect his production from 2010, but he will hit 20+ home runs and drive in 85+ this season.  Keep an eye out for him as he will fall down many draft boards.  You should be able to pick him up as a nice little sleeper in the later rounds.

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The three of us here at Baseball Fantasy 101 have sat down for several hours and have gone through the top players and we created our combined list for the top 50 fantasy players.


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--Big Panda

Robby Cano is a model of consistency for MLB second basemen, and for players at each position. The Yankees stud delivered big numbers once again last year, hitting 28 bombs, driving in 118, scoring 104, and stealing 8 bags, all to go with a nice .304 average. Cano’s average was actually down last year, as his career average is .308. His numbers over the past three years average out to very healthy totals of 27/104/103/5/.314 (HR/RBI/R/SB/AVG). These numbers are great at any position, especially at 2B, probably the second weakest position (to catcher) in fantasy. There are truly only about five second basemen that will do you a lot of good this year. This is why Cano is so good in fantasy, and subsequently why we have him ranked so highly.

Playing in the Bronx for the New York Yankees is another advantage Cano has. A wildly powerful Yankees offense always has and should continue to support Cano’s success. The Yankees are not only powerful – they are patient as well, a trait that is always beneficial to the RBI and runs scored of a middle of the order hitter like Cano. Even Mark Teixeira, who sports a poor batting average each year, has a career OBP of .373. Whether Cano hits third or fifth for the Bombers this year, he will be surrounded by big-time bats who will get on base for him and drive him in when he gets on. The benefit of playing for the Yankees extends to playing in the hitters’ heaven known as Yankee Stadium. Cano is able to exploit the short dimensions in right and right center field and hit a bunch of homeruns. We saw the effects of this cozy ballpark in Curtis Granderson’s numbers last year. Cano can also hit consistent line drives to left center and center field, keeping his slugging percentage up. This has a positive effect on both runs scored and RBI’s.

Cano should be a first rounder in your draft this year. If he falls to the second round, scoop him up. 
HR RBI R SB AVG  
26 109 101 6 0.321

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Baseball has seen an unprecedented amount of foreign talent enter the league over the course of the last decade or so but many of them have not lived up to the hype which surrounds them in their home countries.  While there are many highly touted players and prospects which have lived up to their potential in the Majors, there are others who succumbed to the pressure of playing big league ball.  For every Ichiro Suzuki or Hideki Matsui, there is a Chien-Ming Wang or a Daisuke Matsuzaka.  The latest of these premier talents to create a buzz around Major League Baseball is Yu Darvish.  The Rangers have recently won trade talks with him and they have all but secured a deal with him.  But the important question is what type of fantasy impact will he have on not only the Rangers but as a league as a whole.  For this analysis, we can go to other foreign pitchers who have had success in the Majors.  Chien-Ming Wang posted an astounding 19 wins to go along with a 3.63 ERA in his first full season of pitching.  Daisuke Matsuzaka had a stellar rookie campaign for the Sox and an even more impressive season in the year following.  He was the owner of 18 wins and a 2.90 ERA as well as 154 strikeouts.  However, with this success comes failure.  It seems that once these pitchers were past their first few seasons in the Majors, hitters started picking up on their tendencies.  Over the past three seasons, Daisuke hasn't had an ERA below 4.69, and Chien-Ming Wang just recently found a home with the Nationals after a horrendous 2009 season highlighted by a 9.64 ERA.  With these numbers taken into consideration, Yu Darvish may be ineffective and follow the trend of pitchers who come to the most talented baseball league in the world or he may break the mold and hold a starting position in Texas for many years to come - only time will tell.  I wouldn't take a chance on him early in the draft.  He has yet to throw a pitch in the Bigs and that is a very large concern.  If you find yourself in a position where you need to draft a pitcher, go ahead and draft one who has proven himself in the majors.  While the potential may be there in the future, there is certainly no reason to waste a pick on a questionable player in the top 100 picks of your draft.

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Update- Rangers signed Yu Darvish

-- Bulldog 

There are many different draft strategies, and no one may be the best. Positional scarcity is a draft idea which is employed by almost all fantasy players to some degree. The greatest weight a scarcity-fueled decision can have lies with what position you target first. Are you interested in a first baseman such as Joey Votto who you can be sure will provide serious power numbers at or above 30 HRs/120RBIs/.300 BA, or do you go after an elite middle infielder who should produce 25/100/.300/25 steals like HanRam. The depth at first base is, yet again, unbelievable and much greater than the depth up the middle. After the first handful of elite middle infielders, the quality of player declines rapidly.  This makes a player like HanRam much more valuable to a team than  Votto because he can provide similar overall production at a position which typically doesn't provide it. In the beginning of the draft, you have to target players you want to build your team around, and drafting a strong middle infield is a great place to start.


Some may argue that you can make up the ground you lose with a weak middle infield by getting great players at other positions. It is really up to you whether or not you want to pick players at scarcer positions early on in the draft, but be warned that the value at positions such as the middle infield will fall off quickly, sometimes leaving you praying Jed Lowrie has a respectable year. This theory of position scarcity applies not only to offensive positions, but it also works on a larger scale. Quality starting pitching is very easy to come by than great offensive players are, creating a huge advantage for those who pass on Roy Halladay for Prince Fielder and grab Trevor Cahill later on. In 5x5 category H2H leagues it is much easier for a great offense to dominate offensive categories than it is for a great pitching staff to do the same on their side of the match-up.


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